Report: Mobile robot market forecast slashed amid tariff uncertainty

Market research firm Interact Analysis said that after previous rapid expansion and investment in the mobile robot industry, it is now undergoing a period of challenges and readjustment.

In its latest mobile robot market report, Interact Analysis revised its predictions to reflect current global conditions and set new expectations as to how it will develop in the future.

The report saw a significantly lower forecast, citing a complex mix of geopolitical, economic and industry-specific challenges, along with changes to Interact Analysis’ methodology in calculating market sizes.

A $800 million reality check for mobile robot market forecast

Interact Analysis’ latest report presented an $800 million reduction in the 2025 market forecast, with lower growth predicted in each of the major regions. This adjustment reflects a broader reassessment of the industry’s growth trajectory, with the 2030 revenue projection now standing at $15.6 billion, down from its earlier, more optimistic estimates. The resulting compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the next five years has also been trimmed from 26% down to 21%.

At the heart of the forecast revision lies the uncertainty surrounding global tariffs, instigated by the new U.S. administration under President Trump. These tariffs are reshaping global supply chains and injecting a high degree of uncertainty into capital investment decisions, causing delays.

Interact Analysis' global mobile robot market forecast has been revised downward for each major region. Source: Interact Analysis

Interact Analysis said companies are holding back on large-scale automation investments, wary of shifting trade policies and uncertainty over both their costs and the fiscal health of customers and vendors. The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) Index hit an all-time high of 430 in January 2025. This level of uncertainty exceeds that seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, many companies are adopting a “wait-and-see” approach, delaying strategic investments in warehouse automation and infrastructure.

Aside from the increased costs, which Interact Analysis said would likely be passed through (partially or totally) to end customers, decades of globalization have meant products are rarely constructed entirely in a single country. Mobile robots are no different and foreign vendors (most notably Chinese) will struggle to remain competitive in the U.S. (and possibly Europe). Similarly, domestic U.S. vendors will incur higher costs (at least in the short term) as they import components and sub-systems from China and APAC.

While there are tentative signs of recovery in warehouse construction, especially in the US and Japan, growth remains sluggish. Interact Analysis revised the global forecast for new warehouse capacity in 2025 slightly upward, but it remains in negative territory at -2.0% year-over-year out to 2030. Elevated construction costs, industrial overcapacity and policy uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on the sector.

A new view of mobile robots

Aside from the external factors outlined above, much of Interact Analysis’ reduction in forecasts has come from the way it measures and predicts demand for mobile robots.

A reassessment of vendor-by-vendor volumes led the firm to an 8% reduction in its market sizes for 2024 and earlier. At the same time, IA said it has conducted a thorough analysis of all possible customer sites for automation.

It said that by better considering the throughput levels of customer sites, IA has adjusted its expectations for mobile automation (compared with fixed automation and manual labor). The net result of this is that the serviceable available market (SAM) for mobile robots is lower than previously projected, as market penetration for order fulfillment robots is assumed to be limited to low and mid-throughput sites.

Finally, after researching this market since 2017 and now with 8 years of historical data, Interact Analysis said it is in a stronger position to understand the likely average growth rate for this industry following both the peak and trough of market cycles. The overall impact of the above factors is a hefty reduction in our forecast for autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) and automated guided vehicles (AGVs).

Interact Analysis released the following observations on mobile robot types:

• AGV conveyors & other material transport robots: Shipment growth reduced from 6% CAGR to 4% between 2025 and 2030 due to weakened economy and automotive growth.
• AMR conveyors: 15-20% cut in large form factor shipments and slight reduction in smaller form factor shipments due to slower anticipated uptake. Slightly offset by higher ASPs.
• Automated forklifts: Slight reduction in shipment CAGR due to the weaker economy.
• Person-to-goods (P2G): IA made a fundamental change to its outlook for P2G robots. The previous assumption was that more vendors would enter this market to enable volumes to scale. However, the market remains dominated by one vendor (Locus Robotics). IA said that its once-closest rival (6 River Systems) has been absorbed into Ocado Intelligent Automation. There are a handful of other vendors active that have won some projects, but not at scale. Despite this, IA still predicts P2G revenues to grow at an average pace of 30% annually to 2030.
  • IA also clarified a recent comment about P2G being an interim step before full automation, not suggesting that demand for this technology is going to slow. Interact Analysis said the demand for more flexible offerings remains very strong, and the prospect of full automation is still several decades out.
• Shelf-to-person & tote-to-person: These product types are those most impacted by both the U.S. tariffs and Interact Analysis’ vendor adjustments, as a large proportion of these segments are served by Chinese vendors. Similarly, the deeper total addressable market (TAM) analysis the firm conducted by warehouse throughput more greatly impacts these types of systems, which typically compete with fixed automation and high-density cube storage in mid-throughput sites. At the same time, Interact Analysis also reduced its expectations for deployments in the rest of APAC and the rest of the Americas regions. IA said it no longer expects costs to drop quickly enough to compete with manual labor in many cases.

Adaptation over acceleration

Interact Analysis’ main message from the report is that the mobile robot industry is still growing, but not as fast or as smoothly as once expected. Tariffs, economic uncertainty and shifting global dynamics are forcing companies to rethink their strategies and timelines.

For stakeholders across the automation ecosystem - from vendors and integrators to end-users and investors - Interact Analysis said that this is a time for strategic patience and adaptability. The fundamentals of automation remain strong, but the path forward will require some careful navigation.